Risiko Pencucian Uang dan Portofolio
Hambatan atau Jembatan bagi Modal Asing?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59593/amlcft.2026.v4i2.287Kata Kunci:
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) two-step, investasi portofolio asing, negara maju, negara berkembang, risiko pencucian uangAbstrak
Investasi portofolio asing sangat sensitif terhadap risiko, termasuk risiko pencucian uang yang dapat menurunkan transparansi, meningkatkan volatilitas, dan melemahkan kepercayaan investor. kajian mengenai dampak regulasi anti pencucian uang terhadap modal asing selama ini lebih banyak berfokus pada investasi langsung dan sektor perbankan, investasi portofolio yang bersifat lebih likuid dan responsif terhadap risiko tata kelola justru berpotensi lebih terdampak namun belum banyak diteliti. Perbedaan kapasitas kelembagaan dan efektivitas regulasi anti pencucian uang antarnegara juga menyebabkan dampak yang tidak seragam, khususnya antara negara maju dan berkembang. Penelitian ini menguji pengaruh risiko pencucian uang terhadap investasi portofolio asing dengan menggunakan pendekatan linier dan non-linier. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel 104 negara selama 2012–2021, melalui model Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) two-step yang mampu menangani endogenitas dan heterogenitas antarnegara secara simutan. Temuan penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan landasan empiris bagi pengambil kebijakan dalam merancang sistem pengawasan keuangan yang proporsional dan tidak kontraproduktif terhadap daya tarik investasi. Hasil penelitian pada kelompok negara berkembang pada tingkat resiko pencucian uang rendah investasi menurun hingga titik ambang tertentu dan meningkat setelah melewati ambang tersebut. Pada kelompok negara maju risiko pencucian uang memiliki peran non-linier dalam memengaruhi investasi portofolio asing, sehingga kebijakan perlu dirancang secara proporsional agar tidak menghambat arus modal yang dibutuhkan untuk pembangunan ekonomi.
Unduhan
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